Negative subsurface temperature anomalies (averaged from 180-100°W) remained steady in August, reflecting below-average temperatures that extended from the surface to ~250m depth in the eastern Pacific Ocean. In the last week, all of the Niño index values ranged from -0.2☌ to -0.3☌. In the last month, ENSO-neutral continued with near-to-below average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) persisting in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. LA NIÑA DISCUSSION | NOAAĪ transition from ENSO-neutral to La Niña is favored in the next couple of months, with a 70-80% chance of La Niña during the Northern Hemisphere winter 2021-22. Look to places like Whistler Blackcomb and Mt Bachelor to benefit greatly from this temperature trend.
Oftentimes, this means low-moisture content snow (light powder) in places that are known for the heavy stuff. NOAA TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK – WINTER 2021-2022īelow average temps are only being forecasted in coastal areas of the Pacific Northwest. This could include ski resorts such as Sun Valley, Big Sky, Mt Bachelor, Whitefish, Schweitzer, and even Alaska’s Alyeska Resort. Resorts with a more northern positioning will likely see more snowfall and colder temps. NOAA PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK – WINTER 2021-2022Īs you can see, this precipitation outlook map is largely in agreement with the current forecast discussion regarding La Niña. Here are the three-month temperature and precipitation outlooks for the main winter months (December-February). However, long-range modeling has come a long way in the past decade, and while we don’t encourage people to take these forecasts as a guarantee of perfect powder, this outlook can be a helpful tool for those on a quest to find the deep stuff. However, the below outlooks from NOAA indicate equal chances for average snowfall for the majority of the northeast with above-average temps forecasted.Īsk any meteorologist and they’ll tell you forecasting accurately beyond 10 days is nearly an impossible task. In terms of the East Coast, the direct effects of La Nina become severely diminished as the jet stream moves from west to east so we’ll mostly leave New England out of this conversation.
That said, there have been multiple La Niña seasons that have delivered historic snowfall to California, so please take these generalizations lightly.
While each La Niña has the potential to be wildly different from the last, the southern states of the Western USA tend to receive slightly less than average snowfall and above-average temperatures. On a typical La Niña year, the jet stream tends to hold a more northern positioning, which can mean consistent cold storms in places like British Columbia, Oregon, Idaho, Wyoming, Montana, Utah, and central/northern Colorado. Those conditions are likely (70-80% chance) to persist through the spring of 2022! Related: The Winter 2022 Forecast Indicates Above-Average Snow Totals for These 17 ResortsĪ recent NOAA forecast discussion for the upcoming winter states, “it’s looking more probable that La Niña will lock in by this winter.” The discussion goes on to explain how forecast models agree that this upcoming season will most likely be a repeat or “second-year La Niña” with chances of colder temperatures and above-average snowfall arriving in the Northern Rockies and Pacific Northwest during the month of October. Ski season is right around the corner, and what better way to celebrate its coming arrival than unpacking a long-range winter forecast from our friends over at NOAA? This year, there are a few reasons to be optimistic regarding snowfall in the Western USA, and we’ll do our best to sufficiently cover the main meteorological trend that is catching our eye: LA NINA!